From Randy Shannon, to Kevin Steele, to Bill Parcells(joke); it seems like every possible name has been rumored to be the next defensive coordinator. We know that Sal Sunseri, linebackers coach at Bama, has been targeted and interviewed for the position. We also know that Buddy Green, the defensive coordinator for The United States Naval Academy, has also interviewed. It was also written that Michigan State DC, Pat Narduzzi, has been "targeted" for the position.

We could go on forever here, but before I get to the facts, if we are going to hire a LB's coach from Alabama, is it too much to look at our own Lance Thompson for the promotion? We have enough Alabama people on the staff Dave Hart, enough.

I want to examine three different defensive coordinators and the FACTS of what they did this year. Let's take Buddy Green from Navy, Pat Narduzzi from Sparty, and oh let's throw out Tommy Spangler from Louisiana Tech. Yes, I will admit from the beginning that while coaching at Presbyterian College, I knew Tommy Spangler, who was the head football coach, very well. However, I am going to point out facts, so this is not just an opinion on my part.

Total Defense - of the 120 FBS schools ranked
Sparty - 5th, gave up an average of 273 ypg, and gave up 30 TD's.
Navy - 85th, gave up an average of 414 ypg, and gave up 47 TD's.
La. Tech - 55th, gave up an average of 374 ypg, but only 33 TD's.

Rush Defense
Sparty - 12th, 104 ypg and 11 rushing TD's
Navy - 92nd, 187 ypg and 32 rushing TD's
La. Tech - 25th, 122 ypg and 8 rushing TD's

Pass Defense
Sparty - 12th, 169 ypg and 16 TD's
Navy - 66th, 227 ypg and 10 TD's
La. Tech - 95th, 252 ypg and 20 TD's

OK, before I move on, let's take a look at this. Michigan State leads in every category, there is one category that matters - TD's allowed. Michigan State's defense allowed only three fewer TD's than Louisiana Tech's defense. Also, do you think the offenses in the WAC are a little more potent than the Big 10?

Now here are some more detailed stats that the average Joe may not take a look at:

Interceptions
Sparty - 15th in the FBS with 16(4 for TD's)
Navy - 70th in the FBS with 10(2 for TD's)
La. Tech - 3rd in the FBS with 20(5 for TD's)

Passes defended
Sparty - 40th with 61 passes defended
Navy - 105th with 37 passes defended
La. Tech - 8th with 76 passes defended

3rd Down Conversions
Sparty - 16th with only 34% allowed
Navy - 117th with 51% allowed
La. Tech - 10th with only 32% allowed

4th Down Conversions
Sparty - 45%
Navy - 58%
La. Tech - 47%

Red Zone Defense
Sparty - 38 attempts (22 TD's and 7 FG's allowed)
Navy - 51 attempts (41 TD's and 3 FG's allowed)
La. Tech - 29 attempts (19 TD's and 8 FG's allowed)

Total Turnovers created
Sparty - 24
Navy - 22
La. Tech - 30

I also think when you look at a total defense, you need to factor in offensive time of possession.
Offensive time of possession
Sparty - 28th with 31:15
Navy - 27th with 31:21
La. Tech - 101st with 28:21

That is three extra minutes per game that the La. Tech defense is on the field vs Sparty and Navy. Factor that in over a season, and you have a defense that has spent over two more quarters on the field than the opposing two teams.

Also, I took the schedule of the three teams and averaged up the strength of the opposing offenses faced. In other words, you have to take the stats based on who they played. Playing Houston is different than playing Minnesota.
Sparty - played offenses that had combined scoring average of 64th in the country.
Navy - played offenses that had combined scoring average of 57th in the country.
La. Tech - played offenses that had combined scoring average of 48th in the country.

Want more? La. Tech's defense held 10 of the 12 teams they faced to less points than they averaged per game. They also held 10 of the 12 teams to less yards than they averaged per game.

La. Tech finished the season with their first ever WAC championship and an 8-5 record. They had one bad loss to Hawaii, the other four losses were to bowl teams. In fact, they lost to Houston by 1, Southern Miss by 2, Mississippi State by 6, and to TCU in the bowl game, by 7.

OK, after this, you know who I feel should be the next defensive coordinator at UT. He has been the DC at La. Tech for five years, and I forgot to mention that when Derek Dooley hired him as DC, La. Tech was LAST IN EVERY DEFENSIVE STATISTICAL CATEGORY!

Tommy Spangler knows something about actually playing in the SEC as well. He won a National Championship with Georgia playing with the great Herschel Walker, under Coach Vince Dooley.

Who knew Justin Wilcox two years ago? Who was excited about him? I think he did a pretty darn good job under the circumstances. What would be the difference if Derek Dooley hired Tommy Spangler then instead of Justin Wilcox?

Tennessee would not be looking for a defensive coordinator now.

Paul Maxwell

I cannot believe I am actually admitting this, and it says something for the system. I turned off the BCS Title game at halftime, and did not record it. There, I said it. I felt bad until I found out that most of the rest of America did as well. This was the lowest rated BCS title game EVER.

YOU KNOW WHY? Let me count the ways:

1 - How in the world can someone who did not even win their own division, let alone conference, play for the title?
No doubt Alabama was the best team on Monday night. Do they deserve to be the one team to hold the crystal? That is for everyone to decide, but in my opinion, no way.

2. The regular season - Where Every Game Matters!! (Until it doesn't)
Don't tell me the regular season matters, when a team who loses at home and gets another chance - to play the same team! That is comical.

3 - The "Tebow Factor"
The day of the title game, what was 98% of the sports world talking about? The Tim Tebow pass on the first play of overtime. FACT. You don't schedule the title game AFTER NFL WILD-CARD WEEKEND.

Having said all this, I am not saying Alabama was not the best team in the country. In fact, I think in a four team playoff, I think Bama would have won, but I do think there would have been much more drama. In fact, I don't think LSU would have beaten Oklahoma State.

No matter to myself or most in the country, but when you love a sport and get this type of ending, how much longer will the country put up with it? If you look at ratings, not long.

Paul Maxwell

Most people know what has taken place over the past two seasons, but this past week was the final straw for me. DeAnthony Arnett, from Saginaw, Michigan, who saw extensive playing time this year for the Vols, wanted to transfer back home closer to his father who has undergone two surgeries in the span of a few weeks. He still may need a third.

Derek Dooley, however, has denied Arnett's request to be released to play at Michigan or Michigan State. The Volunteers, citing school policy, have released Arnett to play at one of the MAC schools in Michigan - Central Michigan, Western Michigan or Eastern Michigan.

Supposedly, it is Tennessee policy not to release players to schools that the Volunteers compete against on the field or in recruiting. However, in the past 10 years, Tennessee has not scheduled any games against Big Ten teams, but in three of the past four years, the Volunteers have played a team from the MAC. Oh, and they play another next year in Akron.

This kid did nothing but give his best while he was here, while "other" players could care less and took plays off whenever they wanted to. I don't care who reads this or what you think about it, but I will just come out and say it - If Derek Dooley wants to restore class and "man up", quit worrying about good kids and get rid of the two players that are clearly damaging this program. Yes, I am talking about Tyler Bray and Da'Rick Rogers.

I guess if you have a good arm, you don't have to play hard for the seniors and send them out on a good note by giving your all against Kentucky. You can joke about not wanting to play in a "lower-tiered" bowl. I guess if you have good enough stats as a receiver, you can run your mouth to your position coach, not play hard every down, and do whatever you please.

This is not about wins and losses for me folks. I coached ten years of my life and cared for my players like they were my sons. This comes down to doing a responsible thing as a coach, a leader, but moreover, a man.

If Derek Dooley wants to start setting policies, and adopting principals - perhaps the first thing he should do is look in the mirror. Also, for those "sheep" fans out there that want to bury their heads in the sand with the Bray and Rodgers situation, keep digging that hole, because it isn't going anywhere but down.

Paul Maxwell

Friday
Wake +7- over Cowbell
Iowa +14 over Okie

Saturday
Northwestern +10 over A&M - BIG
Virginia +3 over Awbarn

Monday
Penn State +7 over Houston - BIG
Sparty/Dawgs under 50
Gators/Tatoos under 44
Wisky -5- over Ducks
Stanford +3- over Okie St. - BIG

Good Luck

Paul Maxwell

OK, got through the holiday movies if you need a laugh, but these are, in my humble opinion, five movies that are the best man-movies ever.

5 - "Public Enemies"
This was a tough one for me, because it came down to this and "The Departed". Here is what it came down to for me - I am sick of listening to Matt Damon and Alec Baldwin talking about politics. and Leo set himself back playing J. Edgar. Very, very awkward. JD playing JD, and Christian Bale were fantastic. I just wish Wahlberg would have been in this one and not the other.

4 - "Casino"
The top four could be thrown into a pot, shaken up, and pulled out of a hat. Even though Don Rickles is the best to ever live, I could not put this one ahead of the others.

3 - "The Godfather" trilogy
Gonna get bashed on this, sorry, great movies, but there are two other that I like better for MY generation. This is the father of all great movies and deserves it's due, but there is no Pesci.

2 - "Heat"
Surprised? Probably, but I have to tell you if Pesci even had a cameo in this movie, it would have been #1. The first movie where two of my favorite five actors of all time share the stage together. The Robert Deniro and Al Pacino diner scene will go down in history, as one of the greatest scenes ever. Both personalities show through, and the ensemble cast is fantastic.

1 - "Goodfellas"
In a word, Pesci. This is by far his greatest performance ever in a movie, and the fact that Deniro and Ray Liotta, take a back seat, makes it even better.

There are no losers here. Just be careful who you tell that they are a "funny guy."

Paul Maxwell

5 - "The Ref"
This movie goes all the way back to 1994 and stars Denis Leary. What is great about this movie to me is that at the time, Kevin Spacey is not as well known, and he and Judy Davis do a great job of making Leary miserable, which he loves to be. It gets a little sappy at the end, but still humorous to make the top 5.

4 - "Home Alone" and "Home Alone 2"
I have to include both, because there is enough adult humor and undertones to make it worthwhile for the whole family. Plus, it has Joe Pesci? Any Pesci is good Pesci.

3 - "Scrooged"
Bill Murray is a comedic icon and it comes through more in this movie than most. Plus there are some legends that have some smaller roles in this one such as Robert Mitchum, Jamie Farr, and Bob Goulet. The real one, not the Will Ferrell one.

2 - "Bad Santa"
Second best Billy Bob movie outside of the re-make of "The Bad News Bears". Couple that with the fact that the late greats Bernie Mac and John Ritter are there, makes this a laugh fest for me. Childish humor? What's your point?

1 - "Christmas Vacation"
Does anything need to be said? A Griswold Family Christmas is NEVER to be out-done.

1 - Play underdogs who are getting more than a TD in December bowls. (60-31-3 since 1983 - 66%)
Plays right now:
Louisiana Tech +10
Arizona State +14
Washington +9
Iowa +13-
Northwestern +10
These are close - Wake Forest +7 and Wyoming +7

2 - Play underdogs with higher Sagarin strength-of-schedule ratings than their opponents. (78-45-3 since 1997 - 63%)
Plays right now:
Wyoming +7
Marshall +4
Louisiana Tech +10
Arizona State +14
Louisville +2.5
Notre Dame +3
Tulsa +2.5
Iowa State +1.5
Utah +3
UCLA +2.5
Penn State +5.5
Nebraska +2
Kansas State +8
Northern Illinois +1
LSU +1

3 - Play under the total in any January bowl game with a total above 50 where one team is favored by 3.5 or more. (40-18-3 since 1995 - 68%)

Penn State-Houston under 57
Georgia-Michigan State under 50.5
Oregon-Wisconsin under 71.5
Stanford-Oklahoma State under 74.5
Clemson-West Virginia under 60.5
Arkansas-Kansas State under 63

Happy Bowling!!

Paul Maxwell

Painstaking research has been conducted over many years and we have what we now believe to be the divine words and wisdom, preserved through countless generations, directed towards college football. We present the Ten Commandments for betting and beating the College Bowls.

I. Thou shalt look to pick the straight up winner of the game.
This may seem obvious but let's examine, for a moment, why this statement is so important. It's very common for handicappers and players to become overly preoccupied with the pointspread. But how often does the line matter? Actually, the line only matters when the Favorite wins the game but fails to cover the pointspread. The line does not matter when the Favorite wins and covers and when the Underdog wins outright. Since 1991, the team that won the game also covered the pointspread 74.5% of the time. That's almost 3 games in four over more than 5,300 games. But the percentage is even higher in Bowl games. Since the 1991 season almost 350 Bowl games have been played and the line has come into play barely 14% of the time. That is, in 86% of all Bowl games played over the past eight Bowl seasons, the winner of the game has also covered the pointspread. So your first objective is to not be obsessed by the line. Rather, look for the team you think will win the game straight up.

When playing an Underdog you should also consider the Money Line under certain conditions. Money Line wagers do not involve points but rather require your team to win the game straight up. When playing an Underdog on the Money Line you receive odds such as +140 or plus 2 to 1, etc. Here are some statistics to guide you. Double digit underdogs (those getting 10 points or more) win straight up only 25% of the time. Thus if you can get at least 3 to 1 on your double digit dog you are getting a fair shake. Keep in mind that the average line for Bowl Underdogs is roughly +6 so the number of double digit dogs is not great (about one Bowl game in six features a double digit line). Surprisingly Underdogs from + 7 to + 9 ½ win at about the same one in four rate and you occasionally will get 3-1 or better in that price range. About one Bowl in seven falls within this pointspread range. An acceptable Money Line range appears to be from + 3 ½ to + 6 ½, or greater than a field goal but less than a touchdown. Underdogs in this range win about one game in three so getting at least 2-1 on these Underdogs can provide value. About one Bowl game in three falls within this pointspread range. Finally the small underdog, up to + 3. These puppies win only about two games in five so you would need at least 3-2 (+ 150) odds to consider these small Underdogs for a money line play. It is extremely important to shop around for money lines since prices can and do vary widely, much more so than straight pointspreads.

II. Thou shalt honor the Underdog in December, but favor the Favorite in the New Year.
A common misconception amongst many handicappers is that you can profit over the long term simply by blindly playing the Underdog. After all, when you play the Underdog three things can happen and two of them are good. The Underdog can win the game outright and obviously cover the pointspread or the Underdog can lose the game straight up but by less than the pointspread. As we saw in Commandment I, this has not occurred often during the past eight Bowl seasons. Of course the bad thing that happen is when the Underdog loses by more than the pointspread. Yet our research has uncovered a very interesting phenomenon during the past eight seasons. Underdogs have slightly outperformed Favorites in Bowl games played in December, compiling a mark of 54% Against the Spread (ATS). That produces only a very small profit but still beats betting the Favorite. Yet once the New Year is ushered in, Favorites have been awesome. Over the past eight seasons January Favorites have gone 41-22-1 ATS, or 65%. Usually these games are on New Year's Day and later and feature the best teams from the regular season just completed. In years past these have been referred to as the Major Bowl games (Rose, Orange, Sugar, Cotton and Fiesta) and the almost-major Bowls (such as the Gator and Citrus Bowls). In most cases the lines are very competitive and the teams will have generally won 8 or more games during the regular season, usually 9 or more. The teams are excited about playing on New Year's Day (or a day or two later) and are more likely to play true to form.

III. Thou shalt strongly consider Underdogs seeking redemption.
Bowl games afford a team an opportunity to share the national athletic spotlight for a few hours during the holiday season. Often, especially in the minor Bowls, football fans are tuned in to only one game. In the case of New Year's Day, the starting times of games are staggered so even then certain Bowls will have the spotlight to themselves for at least some period of time.

Teams like to make the best of their time in the spotlight - to put their best foot forward one might say. In the case of a team that lost the previous year in a Bowl game the opportunity to erase the bitter taste of a Bowl defeat that has lasted a year can be a powerful motivator for a good effort. Especially when the team seeking to reverse a defeat is made the Underdog. Historically, such teams have covered the spread at a 60% rate.

IV. Thou shalt respect the running game.
Despite the many changes in the game of football, the ability to control the line of scrimmage has always had a strong correlation to success both straight up and Against the Spread. Controlling the line of scrimmage is best evidenced by the ability to run the ball on offense and to stop the run on defense. Historically, teams that outrush their opponents cover the pointspread in excess of 60%. There are many reasons why such a strong correlation exists, including the obvious one that a team that has the lead is more likely to run the ball in the end stages of a game than to prolong the game by attempting passes.

There has been a tendency in recent years for Bowls to be high scoring, especially the minor Bowls. A part of the reason why this is so is because one or both teams lack a strong running game to be able to control the clock and protect leads late in games. Often that's the difference between a 9-2 record and a major Bowl bid and a 7-4 log and a minor Bowl appearance.

One indicator that has been successful over the long term has been simply average yards per rush on offense. The team having the better rushing average has covered over 55% of the time in all Bowl games dating back to the mid 1980s. In recent years the success rate has faltered a bit but it is still a good indicator of pointspread success in general, not just in Bowl games.

How important is the rushing game in Bowls? Consider that in the almsot 350 Bowl games played since 1991 the team gaining more rushing yards in a Bowl game has covered at better than a 79% clip. Compare that to the 51% ATS success rate enjoyed by the team gaining more passing yards. The team that has the better average yards per rush in a Bowl game (not necessarily the same team that gains the most rushing yards) has covered at slightly under a 75% rate. THAT's how strong the rushing game is!

V. Thou shalt avoid the disinterested or disappointed favorite.
Not every team that goes to a Bowl is excited about the opportunity. Whereas in days gone by a trip to a Bowl game was a reward for a very successful season, times have changed. Years ago there were many less Bowl games. In order to be invited to a Bowl game a team pretty much needed to win a minimum of 7 and often 8 games. Nowadays it takes only a 6-5 record for a team to become "Bowl eligible." Mediocrity is hardly worth rewarding but with 30+ Bowl games there are now 60+ slots to fill. 45% of all Division I-A teams will be going to Bowl games this season.  Yet there are always teams that do go Bowling that may not look upon the experience as a reward and often give a very lackluster effort. Such teams, especially when favored, present outstanding opportunities to play against.

Several years ago many will recall USC was another team that was not enthused about playing in their Bowl game, even despite a two season absence from any Bowl. They were favored by 16 points over TCU, a program that had been to just two Bowl games in the past twenty years. The program was on the upswing under new coach Dennis Franchione and was excited to be in the Sun Bowl, even though it was being held in their home state. Of course, TCU pulled the upset, totally outplaying USC and winning 28-19.

Almost always these will be in the pre-January games, but every so often a New Year's Day participant might be disinterested. Looking for those disinterested teams can prove oh so profitably betting against them.

VI. Thou shalt recognize negative momentum.
Teams that go to Bowl games have generally had pretty good seasons. It can be argued that a 6-6 season is hardly 'pretty good' but such teams nevertheless are needed to fill Bowl berths. But what about teams that have ended their 'good' regular seasons on a sour note? Or two? Or more? Consider teams that have lost two or more consecutive games at the end of the regular season. Our research revealed some very interesting results that differed depending upon whether the team with that negative momentum was made the favorite or the underdog in their Bowl game.

It can be argued that a team that has lost two or more games can look at its Bowl game in one of two ways - either it's a chance to end the season on a positive note and make amends for a disappointing finish to what had been a very good season (after all, even a 6-5 team was 6-3 or better before their end of season losing streak). Or, such a team might not be interested in continuing what had been a promising season but which had turned sour down the stretch. Often such a team that is made the Underdog in this situation is a team that had overachieved during the regular season and looks upon this Bowl game as a reward and chance to show they really are an improved team. A Favorite in this spot is more apt to be a team that had higher aspirations but whose late season collapse relegated that team to a much lesser Bowl than had looked likely before the losing streak set in. The results over the past couple of decades seem to support these contentions.

Favorites entering their Bowl game off of two or more consecutive losses are a paltry 5-14 Against the Spread over the past 20+ years. That's just 26% ATS. Underdogs have fared better, although they've not excelled. Underdogs off of two or more straight losses have gone 20-15 ATS (57%) over the past 20+ years.

VII. Thou shalt honor the history of the opposing coaches
There are coaches and there are Big Game coaches and Bowl games are certainly Big Games. Penn State's Joe Paterno, Florida State's Bobby Bowden and Wisconsin's Barry Alvarez have fashioned outstanding Bowl game records over the years. On the other side of the ledger Texas's coach/former North Carolina coach Mack Brown has compiled a poor Bowl record over the years. It is important to study the records of both a team and its head coach in recent Bowl appearances to perhaps uncover some edges not readily visible. Some coaches place great emphasis on winning a Bowl game once the bid is accepted. Other coaches look at a Bowl as an opportunity to prepare for next season, especially if it is a minor Bowl without any national ranking implications. Surfing the Internet during the four to five week period following the end of the regular season and the Bowl game can provide the insights into how a coach is approaching their upcoming Bowl. And don't assume that a coaching change following the end of the regular season is a negative. Recent history suggests otherwise. Often a new coach can use a Bowl game, often his first game as head coach, as a motivational and recruiting tool. What appears to be a disadvantage - a coaching staff in partial or full disarray - is often the opposite. Most coaches are aware, especially in the minor Bowls which are more spread out than the many Bowls all being played on New Year's Day, that their Bowl game is the center of attention in the athletic world for several hours. Every Bowl game is telecast on cable or network television. That's a powerful recruiting tool. But not all coaches see it that way. The preference is to look to back a team whose coach is more interested in winning THIS game than in using the game as an extra practice session for next fall.

VIII. Thou shalt consider Conference strength
Conference strength seems to go in cycles. Pay attention to conference results in the early Bowl games as often they are accurate barometers of how the better teams will do in later Bowls. Also, make a note of strong or weak performances by a conference during the Bowls. Those results might give you an added edge next season when interconference play takes place in September.

IX. Thou shalt review games against common opponents
It's quite common for both teams in a given Bowl to have faced one or more foes during the regular season. By examining those games against a common foe, or foes, conclusions can be drawn as to whether or not the right team is favored. More than just the final score should be compared. Look closely at the rushing and passing statistics to see if one team struggled while the other team succeeded in the same aspect of the game against the same opponent.

X. Thou shalt consider experience and other intangible factors
Experience is a positive factor when handicapping the Bowls for many of the reasons previously discussed. Especially having an edge in experience over your opponent. Historically, Underdogs with more recent Bowl experience than their favored opponents have cashed at better than 60%. Experience is often related to the current strength of a program. Additionally, experienced teams are better able to handle to off-the-field activities that surround Bowl games and are more likely to be able to 'get down to business' once the practice sessions begin and the game gets underway

Wishing Everyone a Successful Bowl Season...At least this gives you some added help.

Paul Maxwell

To many of us, including me, we "think" that this game or that bowl, is the game of the year. Truth be told, those are entertainment for the players, fans, and those that want to market themselves for million dollar contracts. "The Game" to me, will be played at 2:30 today in Landover, Maryland. This is truly a game. These young men don't major in football, they don't skip class, and they don't think of themselves before their teammates. They are preparing for the Game of Life that they wanted to be a part of.

While many college players are deciding on whether to go out early and get millions of dollars, these young mean are preparing to give themselves for our country. These young men allow us to get caught up in the BCS, allow us to watch the Super Bowl, and afford us many of the opportunities that we take for granted.

I have not missed an Army-Navy game for many years, and will not miss it today. I cannot wait to sit and watch the pre-game with my nine year old son. I cannot wait for the chills and goosebumps that I feel every year. I cannot wait to see an Army player help a Navy player up, because that is what it is all about.

Do yourself a favor and watch this game. I cannot guarantee it will be a great game, but I guarantee you will be proud of each and every one of those players out there. You might even shed a tear, like I do, just thinking about what these young men mean to our country.

Paul Maxwell

There are 35 bowl games this year, and I find 5 games that are compelling match-ups for me. Not only that, but two are BCS bowls that I find to be a joke. I will also add that really there are only 4 I am looking forward to, but I guess I have to throw the re-match in to the 5.

Here are the 5 that I find compelling:
Notre Dame vs Florida State
Georgia vs Sparty
Wisconsin vs Oregon
Stanford vs Oklahoma State
LSU vs Bama

That's it, throw the other 30 into the toilet bowl, which btw is probably one of the only bowl that isn't out there, and flush em all. It is pathetic, insulting, and a farce that is taking place in my beloved sport.  It is nothing but a bunch of scumbag money hungry idiots that make this decision; or to quote the great Hunter S. Thompson:

"Some people will say that words like scum and rotten are wrong for Objective Journalism — which is true, but they miss the point."

Paul Maxwell