
Multiple sources report that the Phills have rejected Toronto’s offer of Roy Halladay for J.A. Happ, pitching prospect Kyle Drabek, and OF prospect Dominic Brown. The decision was the right one, and here’s why:
1) The Jays wanted too much: J.A. Happ is currently 7-1 with a 2.96 ERA in the bigs so far. Drabek (son of former Cy Young winner Doug) is said to be close to being ready for the big call up and has one of the more nasty curves that we’ve seen in years. There’s also talk of P Carlos Carasco (named one of the top 50 prospects in baseball by MLB.com) being involved in any future deal. Carasco’s killing it in Triple-A right now.
2) One arm won’t make a difference: We’ve stated before that this deal reminds us of Johan to the Mets and we stand by it. Bringing in Doc for Happ and the future gives the Phills a rotation of Halladay, Cole Hamels, Jamie Moyer, Joe Blanton, and Rodrigo Lopez. We can’t see the 3 starters needed for a post-season run in that group. Add to the problem that closer Brad Lidge has blown 6 saves in 25 chances(also an ERA over 7.00), and we just think that the defending champs would be better served mortgaging their future elsewhere.
3) Philadelphia’s better off keeping the prospects. There is a reason that Toronto wants Happ, Drabek, and Carasco. It is because they are ready. Imagine this rotation over the next 3 years: Hamels, Happ, Drabek, Carasco, and Blanton. Couple it with a nucleus of Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, Jayson Werth, Raul Ibanez and Shane Victorino and the team’s a serious threat to become a baseball dynasty.
4) The division is theirs already: I get that it’s world series or bust, but is it really worth over-paying to take a chance on another title this year over showing patience and challenging for the foreseeable future? The baby Braves aren’t ready. The Mets have fallen apart, and the Marlins just don’t quite have enough.
5) They can probably finagle George Sherrill away from the O’s for much less: Let’s look at Lidge’s stats again: he’s blown 6 saves in 25 chances and has an ERA over 7.00. The Phills will not win the series again with Lidge as the closer.
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