Fantasy Football Rookie Report

There are always ill-informed football fans in fantasy football leagues that decide to take a risk and spend high draft picks on rookies. It is very rare for rookie wide receivers to have big years as rookies, but there are plenty of rookies that are worth a gamble later in the draft. We will start with the high-profile rookies and then work our way down to the underrated rookies that will be worth a look later in the season.

Obvious Impact:

1)      Donald Brown (Ind) – This might shock some fans that I have him ranked ahead of Knowshon Moreno, but Brown is set up to have a better fantasy season than Moreno. The former Connecticut back led the nation in rushing last season with 2,083 yards and is the perfect compliment to Peyton Manning. Joseph Addai struggled with injuries last year and Brown will become the starter at some point this season. Expect Brown to rush for 1,000 yards with over 200 yards receiving and over 10 total touchdowns.

2)      Knowshon Moreno (Den) – The former Georgia back was very explosive in the SEC and will have a very good career in Denver. The problem here is that we have no faith in Kyle Orton and Moreno has already had injury issues in the preseason. Moreno plays behind the best offensive line in the AFC and should also have at least 1,000 yards this season. Moreno will miss a couple of games this season, but is still worth a look as a starting running back.

3)      Hakeem Nicks (NYG) - The former University of North Carolina receiver had some of the best hands in college football and will be starting for the Giants soon. Nicks had two touchdown catches in Saturday night’s loss to the Jets. The Giants don’t have another receiver on the roster that can stretch the field like Nicks. Steve Smith has struggled with drops again this preseason and Mario Manningham has also struggled. Nicks will be Eli Manning’s favorite target by the end of the year.

4)      Kenny Britt (Ten) – The former Rutgers receiver has done well in the preseason and has shown that he has the speed to get past defensive backs. Justin Gage and Nate Washington are listed as the starting receivers for the Titans, but Washington has been battling a hamstring injury and could miss week one. Washington has never had 800 yards in one season and rookies usually do very well under Jeff Fisher.

5)      LeSean McCoy (Phi) – Brian Westbrook’s backup should see plenty of action in his rookie season. McCoy should have a decent amount of touchdowns once Westbrook misses games. Corey Buckhalter had very good years as Westbrook’s backup and McCoy should get drafted in all fantasy football leagues.

Rookies That Will Have Marginal Success:

1)      Percy Harvin (Min) – The speedy receiver from Florida will find a way to get the ball, but he won’t have the same success he had with the Gators. Harvin will be used as a receiver, running back, returner and as the Wildcat quarterback. Harvin is worth a look because of his versatility, but I would make sure that he starts producing before you waste a roster spot on him.

2)      Jeremy Maclin (Phi) -  This was a very good draft pick for the Philadelphia Eagles. Donovan McNabb needed more weapons and the Eagles added Maclin, LeSean McCoy and Michael Vick in the offseason. Maclin is very similar to Santana Moss and was also a very good returner in college. We expect McNabb to have a very strong season, but there are too many weapons on this offense that will keep Maclin from having a huge season.

3)      Shonn Greene (NYJ) -  This consistent running back had at least 100 yards in every game at Iowa last season, but he is currently buried behind Thomas Jones and Leon Washington. We think he will get some playing time later in the season and Greene will be a big part of the Jets in 2010. If Jones or Washington gets hurt, Greene is worth a look during the season.

4)      Mark Sanchez (NYJ) -  I really didn’t want to put him on the list, but Sanchez has the best chance of any of the rookie quarterbacks to succeed this season. Sanchez will benefit from a very good run game, but only has one good receiver in Jerricho Cotchery. If Brandon Marshall gets traded to the Jets, the value of Sanchez skyrockets.

5)      Glen Coffee (SF) – We expect Frank Gore to have a big season with the 49ers, but this former Alabama back should see some carries in the red zone. Coffee a very underrated NFL back and could be worth a gamble late in your draft.

Underrated Rookies:

1)      Rashad Jennings (Jax) - The former Liberty running back will end up being Maurice Jones-Drew’s backup with the Jaguars. Jones-Drew has never had more than 197 carries in a season and might wear down later in the season now that he is the main running back. Chauncey Washington and Alvin Pearman are the veteran backups, but neither has the potential that Jennings has in his rookie season.

2)      Brian Hartiline (Mia) – This former Ohio State receiver might be the surprise rookie of the preseason as he is currently running with the first team offense with the Dolphins. Harltine is expected to start opposite of another former Buckeye in Tedd Ginn Jr. Greg Camarillo had a very good season last year, but he is recovering from an ACL injury. Davone Bess is another receiver that Chad Pennington likes and Hartline should help form the most underrated group of receivers in the NFL.

3)      Mohamed Massaquoi (Cle) – We never thought Massaquoi was that good at Georgia, but this athletic receiver has had a very strong preseason with the Browns. The former Bulldog will rotate with Josh Cribbs and Mike Furrey as the second receiver opposite of Braylon Edwards. If Brady Quinn or Derek Anderson has a strong season, Massaquoi could put up some nice touchdown numbers.

4)      Austin Collie (Ind) – This lightning-quick receiver could end up being Peyton Manning’s slot receiver by the end of the season. Manning loves intelligent receivers that can get open and Collie is a perfect fit for Manning’s offense. If Anthony Gonzalez struggles as the number two receiver, Collie could see plenty of balls thrown his way.

5)      Kenny McKinley (Den) – If the rumors are true that the Broncos are trying to trade Brandon Marshall, this former South Carolina receiver could climb the depth chart. McKinley had a very productive career at South Carolina and McKinley has as much talent as any receiver on this roster not named Brandon Marshall or Eddie Royal.

6)      P.J. Hill (NO) – This undrafted rookie had had a very strong preseason and had 12 carries for 83 yards and two touchdowns in a blowout win over the Oakland Raiders. Sports Illustrated’s Don Banks wrote that the Saints might have found another hidden gem in Hill like they found in Pierre Thomas. The former Wisconsin back is another player on this list that was very productive in college.

7)      Shawn Nelson (Buf) – Nelson was probably shocked that he fell to the fourth round, but he should be happy that he landed with a team that is very weak at the tight end position. Nelson is not the best blocking tight end. The Bills drafted him because he is a great red zone target and Nelson should see some early playing time now that Derek Fine is injured. Nelson will be the starting tight end for the Bills in 2010.

8)      Chase Coffman (Cin) – This huge rookie from Missouri has been ripped a new one on Hard Knocks on HBO. The good news for Coffman is that even though the coaches have been upset with him at times, there is plenty of playing available now that Reggie Kelly and Ben Utecht are both out for the year. We already told you in an earlier article that the Bengals could have three receivers with close to 1,000 yards and this should help Coffman get open in the endzone. If this rookie can learn the offense quickly, expect Coffman to be one of the most productive rookie tight ends.

Why did we leave Matthew Stafford, Josh Freeman and Darius Heyward-Bey off of this list? The simple answer is that all three of these rookies will have bad rookie seasons. Heyward-Bey and Freeman might have been the two worst draft picks in the draft and Stafford will struggle all season playing with the horrible Detroit Lions.